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User blog:VileMaster/A look at the basins: October 9, 2017
Now that we are in the late season, I think it's time we look back at tropical activity in the basins in 2017, and to look at what could be coming in the future. I will be giving the current standings of each basin and an overall grade for the basin so far. Nothing listed here is final. North Atlantic Current Standing: Named Storms: '''3rd' ''Accumulated Cyclone Energy: '''1st' ''Storm Intensity: '''1st' The Atlantic has truly been the basin to watch this year. It has produced an unusually high number of intense storms, and unprecedented damage to the United States. The Atlantic has had storm trackers on their toes since mid-August and isn't showing many signs of stopping. Despite being third in named storms with Fourteen so far (likely Fifteen soon), it has produced a whopping nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes, similar numbers to a season like 2004. And with over 200 ACE, the season has shown how powerful it is, with dual Category 5 Hurricanes. Even in October, the Atlantic continues to produce tropical cyclones. Looking to the future, I think it's likely that Tropical Depression Seventeen will become Ophelia as soon as 11 am, as Tropical Tidbits is currently showing 35 kt. At this rate, I wouldn't rule out Philippe or even Rina this month. The Atlantic is proving favorable and could likely continue chugging along for a few more weeks. East Pacific Current Standing: ''Named Storms: '''2nd' ''Accumulated Cyclone Energy:' 3rd'' ''Storm Intensity: '''3rd'' The East Pacific has been about average so far, with seventeen named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, and an ACE value of roughly 96. Despite this, the basin has been a little on the weak side, with the lowest pressure only being 947 millibars. Despite very favorable conditions in July, the rest of the season has been meh, probably a failed start to a hyperactive season, which was replicated in the West Pacific. However, this basin has had quite a few landfalls. Looking ahead, models don't really show much in the short term, but I think it is very likely another tropical cyclone will form before the season ends. It may be Selma, it may be Walaka, could be a Depression. We'll just have to see what happens. West Pacific Current Standing: Named Storms: '''1st' ''Accumulated Cyclone Energy: '''2nd' ''Storm Intensity: '''2nd''' Ew. This basin has been hideously below average, with 19 storms, but only 7 typhoons and 1 measly super typhoon. Despite the high number of storms, almost all of them have been weaker than normal. Only one Typhoon has acheived winds of 150 mph or higher, that being Noru way back in July. As mentioned earlier, July seemed to be a failed blowup to a hyperactive season. The biggest punch to the face to the West Pacific is a pathetic ACE value of 116 units, which is about half of what the Atlantic has produced. The future looks somewhat grim for the WPAC, with models showing only occasional development through the forecast period, and nothing getting intense. I think this could end up the weakest typhoon season since 1999, but we can't rule out some strong storms later in the season. This concludes my post. What do you guys think about the performance of the basins this season? Category:Blog posts